Obtaining Measures from Subjective Probabilistic Expectations

Measures of expectations can provide important insights into future economic behaviour, reflecting the forward-looking nature of many economic decisions. This post explains how to obtain measures, such as quantiles and moments of interest, derived from subjective probabilistic expectations. The core methodology behind this approach is to obtain subjective probabilities about certain events, and then fit these probabilities to a distribution, resulting in an expectations distribution.

Obtaining Measures from Subjective Probabilistic Expectations.pdf